Graham Platner and Susan Collins are locked in a neck-and-neck battle for Maine’s Senate seat, a race that could determine which party takes control of the Senate.
In a New York Times/Press Herald/Siena Poll published Monday, 49 percent of likely Maine voters said they support Platner, the progressive newcomer. But that’s only a 2 point lead over Collins, an advantage too slight to reliably forecast the election outcome. The incumbent Republican trailed in major polls during her 2020 reelection bid before securing a decisive win over Democrat Sara Gideon.
By and large, the surveyed voters lean Democratic. Over half voted for Kamala Harris in 2024; today, they overwhelmingly disapprove of President Donald Trump’s presidency, excoriating how he’s handled the economy, cost-of-living crisis, immigration and the Iran war. Come this fall, most voters prefer that Democrats take control of the Senate.
But Platner’s controversial past has turned off some Mainers. An oyster farmer who’s never held elected office, his campaign was beset by scandal: a tattoo with Nazi overtones, unearthed Reddit posts and allegedly “unsettling” treatment of women. A majority of surveyed voters said his string of controversies has either called into question their support for him or made them disavow him entirely. And Collins is winning 10 percent of voters who would prefer Democrats take control of the Senate.
Despite the controversies and ensuing set of personnel shake-ups in Platner’s high-profile campaign, he still bested Gov. Janet Mills in the Democratic primary earlier this month. In Washington, high-profile Democrats have begrudgingly supported Platner, but they remain focused on defeating Collins.
Platner’s supporters have rallied behind his policies — 24 percent of his would-be voters say they’re motivated by a “positive view of candidate’s policies” — but Collins has the moral advantage, the poll shows. A third of her supporters are rallying behind Collins thanks to a positive view of her character. Meanwhile, a quarter of those supporters said they’ll vote for Collins due to a “negative view” of Platner’s morals and competence.
Still, voters have fresh fears about Collins. Fifty-four percent worry that she would support Trump’s policies too much if reelected. And some of her supporters worry that she’s “too old” to be an effective senator.
“But, and the ‘but’ is huge, [state voters] respect Collins’ moral values, while some have concerns about Platner,” said Don Levy, executive director of the Siena Research Institute.
The poll of 608 likely voters was conducted from June 19-26 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.
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