With no October surprise in sight, Republicans try to save themselves

Republicans have lost hope for a last-minute surprise that will substantially change midterm math that’s increasingly adding up against them.

Instead, they’re doing what they can to save themselves.

Many are distancing themselves from some of President Donald Trump’s most unpopular policies — in some cases, ones they agreed with only weeks before — as polls show the president is deeply unpopular and at risk of dragging Republican candidates down with him.

While the party in power often takes a beating in tough midterm cycles, it is especially notable under Trump, who has historically responded viciously to dissent.

“There’s been a little bit of a reset across the country where Republicans are saying what they want to say and less worried about repercussions,” said Ari Fleischer, White House press secretary for former President George W. Bush.

Michigan Senate candidate Mike Rogers and Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan on Friday became the latest Republicans to break with one of the president’s policies, voicing concern over Trump’s deal with Vladimir Putin to import diesel from Russia.

Nate Adams, a spokesperson for Sullivan, said in a statement that the senator “believes American energy dominance is the answer to high prices, and that means producing more of it in Alaska, for Alaskans, by Alaskans, not importing it from Russia.” Trump stumped for Sullivan Tuesday in Wasilla, Alaska.

“You just don’t want to give that guy an inch,” Rogers told reporters Friday before a campaign event in Michigan. Rogers said he opposed importing diesel from Russia and preferred a temporary diesel export ban, such as one the White House considered and rejected.

The remarks come on the heels of similar moves by other GOP candidates to create distance from the White House. In Iowa and Ohio, Senate hopeful Rep. Ashley Hinson and Sen. Jon Husted called for a quick end to the Iran war. In Florida, Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar said Trump's deportation policies went too far. In Kansas, Sen. Roger Marshall said he was “frustrated” by the president’s plan to import foreign beef. And Rogers’ position on Russian fuel comes after he voiced concerns last week about the president’s trade war with Canada.

Together, they’re reflective of the overall sour mood across the country, where Republicans are broadly upset that the Trump administration hasn’t done more to better set the economic stage for the midterm elections. Growing numbers of Republicans are resigned to the idea that Trump won’t deliver an October surprise to jolt their campaigns.

It’s too late for gas prices to drop under $4 per gallon, mortgage rates are unlikely to fall significantly and beef prices remain at historic highs. That’s led to candidates looking for ways to show they are responsive to voters’ concerns even when Trump doesn’t appear to be.

In Kansas, where Marshall is mired in an unexpectedly close contest with Democrat Adam Hamilton, farmers are grappling with not only the president’s tariff agenda — which has caused supply-chain headaches for more than a year — but rising diesel costs, labor shortages and the Trump administration’s efforts to lower beef prices at the expense of U.S. cattle ranchers.

Marshall said that the president’s move to import foreign beef sent the wrong signal to domestic cattle ranchers.

“There is a concern that people say I’m going to pass this year and vote in two years for president,” said Ken Rahjes, a GOP state lawmaker in western Kansas, who said he still believes Republicans will turn out in November.

A White House official, granted anonymity to speak candidly, said there is “absolutely no distance” between Trump and Republicans, providing a long list of candidates who have appeared alongside the president at rallies in their states or attended the Dallas midterm convention, as well as examples of more than two dozen candidates who have featured the president prominently on social media.

“These candidates are talking about the issues in their states. They are running real campaigns and these are kitchen-table topics they need to address — they aren’t breaking with [Trump’s policies],” the official said.

The White House and Trump-aligned GOP operatives have made clear that the president is tolerating the moves from candidates, so long as they don’t criticize him directly. A second White House official, granted anonymity to share details of private conversations, said that he explained to the president that “just because they have a stance on an issue” that conflicts with the president's “doesn’t mean they are balking” him — and that the president agreed.

“Candidates need to be able to talk to the issues, but it's certainly not a balk at him or a stiff arm or anything like that,” the official said, noting that candidates like Hinson have still been appearing with the president even as they’ve disagreed.

It is true that Republicans rarely criticize Trump even as they urge him to change many of the policies that have come to define his second term.

Rogers last week released a campaign ad — which features the candidate at a bar drinking a Canadian beer the U.S. has prohibited importing — calling for an end to Trump’s month-plus trade war with Canada.

It was a reversal for Rogers who shortly after the trade war started in August said in an interview on Fox News that “some” of the trade war was the “right thing” for Michigan and that “the Canadians have not been good partners.”

“It shouldn’t be surprising that folks are looking for opportunities to distance themselves from Washington,” said Michigan strategist Jason Roe, who is working on Rep. Tom Barrett’s (R-Mich.) re-election campaign. “If there’s not going to be a resolution and things aren’t going to improve, then you need to be talking about it.”

Hinson has criticized the knock-on effects of the Iran war, saying that her constituents “are being squeezed” and “shouldn’t have to foot the bill at the pump or the checkout line for the war in Iran.” Rogers,  Husted and Wisconsin gubernatorial candidate Tom Tiffany have all also called for an end to the war.

“Everybody is so upset out here. They’re mad,” said Iowa farmer Lance Lillibridge, an informal ag adviser to Hinson who is active in GOP politics in the state.

“I gotta agree with her. I want it to end as well, and so does everybody in Iowa, and her job is to take that message to Washington,” said Lillibridge, who added that he remains a staunch supporter of the president and believes fertilizer companies are to blame for the squeeze farmers are feeling.

RNC spokesperson Natalie Baldassarre said that “Republicans remain united behind the president's agenda of cutting taxes, lowering drug costs, and securing our communities.”

“We are laser- focused on winning, and our candidates will run the races necessary to best represent their districts and prevent Democrats from taking control,” she said.

Spokespeople for the Hinson and Marshall campaigns did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

A spokesperson for the Rogers campaign referred back to his public remarks, while Adams, the Sullivan spokesperson, noted that the senator has worked with the administration on several efforts to bring down the cost of diesel in Alaska, including last week’s dyed diesel executive order.

The White House has, in some cases, communicated with campaigns and candidates on their messaging, giving them leeway to diverge from the president’s, so long as they aren’t directly criticizing Trump himself. Asked Wednesday about the Rogers ad calling for an end to the trade war, Trump told reporters he “viewed it as he wanted Canada to make a deal,” a point Rogers himself underscored during a Thursday night debate, noting that he had spoken with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick about the issue.

While the Michigan and Maine Senate races have been most roiled by the Canadian tariffs, they’re having ripple effects in other contests. Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski said it would help Republican candidates like Sullivan if the Canadian tariffs were not an issue.

"They're having an impact in Alaska too, when it comes to [the] cost of goods. But I don't know that people are making that connection as much as they may in some of the other border states,” Murkowski said.

Myah Ward and Jason Beeferman contributed to this report.



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